Finance

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EMV Calculator.

Calculate expected monetary value from scenario probabilities and payoffs.

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Expected monetary value: $32.00 $

Expected monetary value

$32.00$
Probability total: 100.00%

Probability total

100.00%

FAQs

How does the emv calculator work?

Enter the requested values to see a deterministic result. Assumptions are explicit and no live market or tax data is fetched.

Cite this calculator

Canonical URL: https://mathify.one/ru/finance/emv

Cite as: Mathify. (2026). Калькулятор: EMV. https://mathify.one/ru/finance/emv

Use Cases

Project Risk Assessment

Quantify the financial impact of risks in a project by assigning probabilities to cost overruns, delays, or savings, helping decide if contingency reserves are adequate.

Example: A project has a 30% chance of a $10,000 cost overrun and a 70% chance of on-budget completion; EMV = -$3,000.

Investment Decision Analysis

Evaluate different investment options by weighing potential returns and losses with their likelihoods, aiding in choosing the option with the highest expected value.

Example: Stock A: 50% chance of +$500, 50% chance of -$200; EMV = $150.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is expected monetary value (EMV)?
Expected monetary value is a statistical concept that calculates the average outcome when future scenarios have different probabilities. It multiplies each possible monetary outcome by its probability and sums the results, providing a single figure to compare risks or opportunities.
How do I use the EMV calculator?
Enter each possible outcome's monetary value and its probability (as a decimal or percentage). The calculator multiplies each value by its probability and sums them to give the expected monetary value. Ensure probabilities sum to 100% for a complete set of outcomes.
What does a positive EMV indicate?
A positive EMV suggests that, on average, the decision or project is expected to yield a profit, considering the probabilities of different outcomes. A negative EMV indicates an expected loss. It helps compare alternatives in risk analysis.

Tips & Common Mistakes

Tips

  • Ensure all possible outcomes are included and their probabilities sum to 100% for an accurate EMV.
  • Use consistent monetary units (e.g., dollars) for all outcomes to avoid calculation errors.
  • For decision-making, compare EMVs of different options; the one with the highest EMV is typically preferred if risk tolerance is neutral.
  • Remember EMV is an average over many repetitions; a single outcome may differ significantly.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

  • Forgetting to convert percentages to decimals (e.g., using 30 instead of 0.30) when entering probabilities.
  • Omitting outcomes with zero monetary value, which can skew the EMV if they have significant probability.
  • Assuming EMV guarantees a specific outcome; it is only a statistical expectation, not a prediction.

Last updated: August 13, 2026